A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
