Donald Trump's Ukrainian Peace Plan Constitutes a Gift to Russia's Leader

For a brief period, the former US president gave the impression to take a strong position on the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering threats of "significant ramifications" in August in case Putin carried on hindering ceasefire discussions, Trump ultimately enacted major penalties on Russia's biggest energy firms, these major energy companies. This move significantly hindered Putin's ability to fund his war effort in Ukraine.

Yet, through his latest comprehensive peace proposal for the conflict, which was developed by American and Russian officials lacking Ukrainian or EU input, he has apparently returned to his Russia-friendly approach.

Rewarding Invasion

The former president's initiative would in practice reward the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while putting Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Despite strong statements that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", large portions of the plan actually undermine that essential independence. What represents a Moscow's wish would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his corporate past, Trump seems to consider the situation in Ukraine as a basic land disagreement, like handing Russia a part of Ukraine's soil will satisfy the leader. Yet, Russia's invasion is not merely about dominating a charred swath of deindustrialized area in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and Putin's apparent intention to eliminate it so it ceases to serves as an attractive example for the Russian people of the democratic governance that Putin's deepening dictatorship denies them.

Land Giveaways

While maintaining in position the already divided regions of these areas, Trump's initiative would force the nation to give up all of this eastern territory. In addition to favoring Russia with area that its troops have been failed to capture in exceeding a decade of warfare, this surrender would leave Ukrainian military defenses dangerously undermined.

The area is the location of Ukraine's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the fortified protective structures that are a critical impediment to enemy progress. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these positions, giving Russian forces a clear way to Kyiv should he subsequently choose to resume the conflict.

Defense Restrictions

Additionally, in a step that would enable additional conflict easier for Russia, Trump would require Ukraine to reduce the numbers of its military from their present 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a limit of this lower number. Importantly, the initiative sets no equivalent limits on Russia's military.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's campaign to depict Ukraine's democratically elected administration as Nazis, Trump's proposal asserts: "All extremist belief system and practices must be opposed and banned." Apparently to emphasize this point, it demands that "The nation will hold elections in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Trump places no obligation that Putin risk his regime by allowing elections in his own country.

Protection Assurances

To be sure, the proposal makes the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter other states" and to "establish in law its stance of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However taking into account that Putin has broken similar treaties in the previous instances – for example the Budapest accord, in which Russia committed to recognize Ukraine's borders in exchange for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow agreed to a ceasefire and a return of seized areas in eastern Ukraine to the government – why should anyone trust Putin this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international defense commitments. While the proposal promises a "decisive joint defense action" should Russia restart its aggression, and provides that "Ukraine will receive reliable protection assurances", the details range from vague to troubling. The proposal would not just prevent the nation accession to NATO but also prohibit Nato members from positioning military personnel on the nation's land, effectively precluding the reassurance force, presumptively commanded by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to deter Putin from restoring his diminished military, rearming, and attacking again.

Global Reaction

Another side agreement according to sources would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "significant, planned, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an assault endangering the tranquility of the transatlantic community." This implies a defense action. Yet in contrast to a strong national defense – Ukraine's most reliable defense against additional hostilities – the credibility of the side agreement would hinge on the willingness of alliance members, like the US administration, to act through arms to Putin's aggression, something they have {not