Daily Homicides in the nation Fall Over a Third Under President Sheinbaum, Per Government Statistics

The average figure of everyday murders each month in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by new government statistics. But, public safety experts have warned that homicide figures might not point to improved national safety.

Marked Decline in Daily Figures

There was an mean of close to 55 murders a day in the month of November as opposed to roughly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in the previous September. This announcement was delivered by the chief of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that have been recorded over these months is extremely significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, noting that in November the smallest number of homicides were recorded for any November in the last 10 years.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Intense drug cartel rivalries, coupled with the administration's highly military efforts to take on the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The rate peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate over 4x higher than the US. However, murders have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 last year. The President has credited her national security approach for an ostensibly sharper reduction in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state said: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and there is specific tracking locality by locality in some cases. The plan works. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The key elements of the President's safety strategy include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Greater coordination between government authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Data Concerns

But, security analysts cautioned that using murder statistics to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is particularly true given the rise in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“That would be excellent news if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide data and say: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical timeframe the previous year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer valid for gauging the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the inclination to correctly recognize and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of daily killings was similarly concerning because it may mask days when there were notably spiking levels of murders.

“Using the per-day mean renders high peaks of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can cite the success of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, per official figures. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

However in spite of these actions, Mexico continues to be grappling with high bloodshed, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-related bloodshed. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the past 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of young people protested in the capital and throughout the country to express their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a manner to build a narrative of safety. Politically it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s very debatable,” Vargas concluded.